A Cross-Region Panel Analysis of the Migration in Romania

Iulian - Alexandru CONDRATOV

doi:10.18662/lumproc.57

Iulian - Alexandru CONDRATOV Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18662/lumproc.57

Keywords: Migration; labor market; education; macroeconomic modeling.

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to realize a macroecnomic analisys of modeling factors for labour force emigration at the level of development regions from Romania. In order to achieve this objective, the research is based on macroeconomic models development witch identifies, through explanatory variables, the main modelating factors of labour force emigration within a panel that comprises the eight development regions, analised with the help of data offered by National Institute of Statistics for the period 1990-2016.

Taking into account the trends from the literature and the results of some empirical studies, we have built panel type models that estimate, based on statistical data for development regions of Romania, the main modelating factors of labour force emigration.

The econometric analysis was based on the estimation of a panel model using the R Studio software package.

We took into consideration the following hypotheses:

There are specific defining elements regarding emigration of people from the eight development regions of Romania;
The variables defined by number of graduates from high schools and colleges, unemployment rate and inflation rate have a significant positive influence over the number of emigrants;
The variables defined by nominal average monthly net earning, average life expectancy and gross domestic product have a significant negative influence over the number of emigrants.

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