A Cross-Region Panel Analysis of the Migration in Romania

  • Iulian - Alexandru CONDRATOV Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava
Keywords: Migration; labor market; education; macroeconomic modeling.


The main objective of this research is to realize a macroecnomic analisys of modeling factors for labour force emigration at the level of development regions from Romania. In order to achieve this objective, the research is based on macroeconomic models development witch identifies, through explanatory variables, the main modelating factors of labour force emigration within a panel that comprises the eight development regions, analised with the help of data offered by National Institute of Statistics for the period 1990-2016.

Taking into account the trends from the literature and the results of some empirical studies, we have built panel type models that estimate, based on statistical data for development regions of Romania, the main modelating factors of labour force emigration.

The econometric analysis was based on the estimation of a panel model using the R Studio software package.

We took into consideration the following hypotheses:

  • There are specific defining elements regarding emigration of people from the eight development regions of Romania;
  • The variables defined by number of graduates from high schools and colleges, unemployment rate and inflation rate have a significant positive influence over the number of emigrants;
  • The variables defined by nominal average monthly net earning, average life expectancy and gross domestic product have a significant negative influence over the number of emigrants.


[1] Jenkins, R. Globalization, FDI and employment in Viet Nam. Transnational Corporations. 2006; 15(1): 115-142.
[2] Zimmermann, K.F. European Migration: What Do We Know?, New York: Oxford University Press; ISBN 978-0-19-925735-5; 2005: 1-653
[3]Eurostat [Internet]. Statistics-Explained. Statistici privind migrația și populația migrantă ISSN 2443-8219. [cited 2018 Mar 19]. Retrieved from: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics/ro
[4] Albu, L.L., Caraiani, P. Iordan, M. Perspectivele pieţei muncii în România în contextul Strategiei Europa 2020. Comisia Naţională de Prognoză. 2011. [cited 2018 Mar 19]. Retrieved from http://www.cnp.ro/inovatie/docs/seminarstudii-25-06-2012/Rezumat%20studiu%20Piata%20muncii.pdf
[5] Son L., Noja G. G. Analiza macroeconometrică în panel a factorilor modelatori ai emigraţiei forţei de muncă la nivelul Uniunii Europene. Economie teoretică şi aplicată. 2012; 19(11): 12-27.
[6] Fan, X., Yakita, A. Brain drain and technological relationship between skilled and unskilled labor: Brain gain or brain loss? Journal Of Population Economics. 2011; 24(4): 1359-1368 .
[7] Miyagiwa K. Scale Economies in Education and the Brain Drain Problem. International Economic Review. 1991; 32(3): 743-59.
[8] Mountford A. Can a brain drain be good for growth in the source economy? Journal of Development Economics. 1997; 53(2): 287-303.
[9] Stark, O., Helmenstein, C., Prskawetz, A. A brain gain with a brain drain. Economics Letters. 1997; 55: 227–234.
[10] Beine, M., Docquier, F, Rapoport, H. Brain Drain and Human Capital Formation in Developing Countries: Winners and Losers. The Economic Journal. 2008; 118: 631-652. Doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02135.x
[11]Clemens, M., A. Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2011; 25(3): 83-106. Doi: 10.1257/jep.25.3.83.
[12] Kim, K. and Cohen, J. E. Determinants of International Migration Flows to and from Industrialized Countries: A Panel Data Approach Beyond Gravity. International Migration Review. 2010; 44: 899-932. Doi: 10.1111/j.1747-7379.2010.00830.x
[13] Hoti, A. Determinants of Emigration and Its Economic Consequences: Evidence from Kosova, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies. 2009; 9(4): 435-458.
[14] Bunea, D. Modern gravity models of internal migration. The case of Romania. Theoretical and Applied Economics. 2012; 4(4): 127.
[15] Prada, E., Ciupureanu, C., Oţoiu, A. A Regional Analysis of Romanian Migration Determinants. Statistics and Economy Journal. 2015; 95(3), 39-47.
[16] Stănilă L., Andreica M., Cristescu A. Ocuparea în ţările UE: analiză de tip panel. Economie teoretică şi aplicată. 2013; 20(1); 48-63
[17] Baltagi, B.H. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley & Sons Lt; 2008.
[18] Hapenciuc, C., Condratov, I. Empiric findings of the analysis in the dynamics of the youth unemployment in the North- East Region - Romania - European Union. The USV Annals of Economics and Public Administration. 2015; 15(2): 16-25.
How to Cite
CONDRATOV, I.- A. (2018). A Cross-Region Panel Analysis of the Migration in Romania. LUMEN Proceedings, 6(1), 7-21. https://doi.org/10.18662/lumproc.57